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Lottery logic | Seth’s Blog

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Someone has to win the lottery, it might as well be you.

Buying a lottery ticket is economically irrational and emotionally rewarding for some. Because while someone has to win, it’s probably not going to be you.

There are examples of lottery logic in our daily work as well. It’s clear that someone is going to be the next Taylor Swift, the next George Clooney or the next Will Smith. But it’s probably not going to be you. Someone is going to raise a $40 million seed round, or get picked to be the next big thing. But it’s probably not going to be you.

It’s tempting to decide to follow the path that leads to mass-market stardom, the top of the charts, the fame and fortune that comes to the person who wins a media lottery. It’s tempting to build a mass-market podcast or a general-audience news site. It’s tempting to be the sort of vanilla-but-attractive actor who can play just about any role…

But it’s far more productive to focus on stepwise progress for the smallest viable audience instead. It might not make headlines, but it’s far more likely to work and more rewarding in the long run.



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